bottom

It takes more than the crystal ball to understand real estate

Are you still looking into that crystal ball?

You know, like when you were searching for the bottom of the market, the lowest interest rate to refinance, or if the economy is sending a signal of a turn around.

In the April 27^th issue of BusinessWeek, there was an article titled “What Good are Economists Anyway?” that really put the screws to high-profile economists for missing the current downturn in the world economy and housing sector. BW can pick some hot topics, but I feel it is probably better for everyone to get out the crystal ball to look at the future instead of the mistakes of the past.

Many real estate web blogs are filled with dry statistics provided by the local MLS, Realtor Association or RealtyTrac. These are very important to economists and real estate obsessed nerds, but ask the average home buyer who is actively searching for a home or home seller waiting for an offer and then you will get a different picture, quickly.

Every market across the United States, such as Northern Virginia, Austin, Chicago, Las Vegas,  Phoenix, Portland,  San Antonio, San Diego or Seattle, has a set of distinct personalities. In addition, these personalities can seem schizophrenic to an economist sitting in an academic setting. While the market in Phoenix or San Diego may be losing value, simultaneously the Austin market may be seeing slight price appreciation. That is why real estate will always be local, almost neighborhood by neighborhood specific, and invisible to interpretation by celebrity economists.

Over my past 18 years in the business, I have met agents from all over the country traveling to training events in Seattle, Denver, Austin, Boston, Atlanta and Philadelphia. And I do my best to touch base with that network to give me insight that may benefit my clients here in Northern Virginia. The data may be not as academic as what you see in official reports, but should be an excellent peek into the “ground-floor” of the real estate business.

bottom

Skimming the bottom in home prices?

Heard any good economic news today? But wait, the Dow and Nasdaq have jumped up, and it is exciting to watch CNBC’s Erin Burnett discuss stocks on the floor of the exchange again. But then the truth hits again when you see that your retirement plan is still down 46% from a year and a half ago.

Head down, blinders on!

Okay, imagine that you are 27, healthy, and have a good job working for an internet security company that has government and private sector business. Actually, too much business since they hired three new people last month. And they know that your skills are in demand and recently gave you a little bonus.

Sound like you? Maybe not, but please know that there are plenty of them out there in the Washington D.C. suburbs.

This group is looking at the best “buyer’s market” in 20 years!

Rates are around 5% fixed for 30-years, there is plenty of inventory to see and to compare, and most sellers are willing to negotiate. Understand dear reader, the market is crossing an important threshold that may be missed. Are we skimming along a local bottom?

One of my listings recently had a full-priced offer within 48 hours, an open-house with 24 groups passing through, 18 agents with clients showing it in four days, and 4 agents asking me to call them if the offer fell out (no one wanted to start a bidding war). It was a real estate buyer stampede in March 2009 on a hot town-home.

Understand that watching The Nightly News can often give us tunnel vision. Yes, it takes a strategy to be successful in real estate, but real estate agents get to see a key ground-floor view of the economy and, in my humble opinion, the tide is turning as the cherry blossoms arrive.