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The national home sale data that has come out recently, like the Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, and local data  have been all over the place giving a confusing picture of the local real estate market. Here, I am going to look at the McLean, Virginia zip codes 22101 and 22102 real estate sales for January 2010.

Although our memories aren’t always accurate, remember that early 2009 had a cascading stock market and the country was falling into economic turmoil. It wasn’t until March 2009 that a bottom was established.

But please know that this information is reported from MRIS which is not guaranteed to be 100% accurate but should be considered pretty darn close.

Keep in mind, mortgage rates were again falling and super low (around 5%).

Home Sales Numbers for 22101 in January 2010:

• Total Units Sold in January 2010, 24 vs. 13 in 2009 (up 84.62%)
• Average Sold Price in January 2010, $1,243,281 vs. $1,1997,292  in 2009 (up 61.70%)
• In the $700,000 to $799,999 range, 2 sold with 6 active listings
• In the $800,000 to $899,999 range, 3 sold with 15 active listings
• In the $900,000 to $999,999 range, 3 sold with 7 active listings
• In the $1,000,000 to $2,499,999 range, 6 sold with 68 active listings
• In the $2,500,000 to $4,999,999 range, 0 sold with 12 active listings
• Average days on market in January 2010 was 93 vs. 175 in 2009
• The average sold price in January 2010 was 81.54% of the average list price

Keep in mind there were big snow storms that shut down Northern Virginia for more than a week. I even had to push my car up the hill on Route 123 in Tyson’s Corner near International Drive at 10:00 pm one Saturday night!

Home Sales Numbers for 22102 in January 2010

• Total Units Sold in January 2010, 15 vs. 7 in 2009 (up 114.29%)
• Average Sold Price in January 2010, $798,493 vs. $626,429 in 2009 (up 27.47%) *
• In the $700,000 to $799,999 range, 1 sold with 2 active listings
• In the $800,000 to $899,999 range, 1 sold with 5 active listings
• In the $900,000 to $999,999 range, 1 sold with 7 active listings
• In the $1,000,000 to $2,499,999 range, 7 sold with 46 active listings
• In the $2,500,000 to $4,999,999 range, 0 sold with 27 active listings
• In the $5,000,000 & Over range, 0 sold with 6 active listings
• Average days on market in January 2010 was 87 vs. 91 in 2009
• The average sold price in January 2010 was 92.36% of the average list price

**This zip code reflects some extremes in pricing as there were 5 sales under $500k and 7 sales over $1.0 million. The McLean home market includes condominiums in all price ranges.

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• Vienna, VA Home Sales Stats | Hyper Local January 2010 (dougfrancis.com)

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A significant number of the homes in Northern Virginia were built in the 1950′s, 1960′s, and 1970′s. Yes, a lot has been built since then, but the building booms in those times constructed significantly smaller homes and much faster.The total number of homes built in the 1970′s alone outpaces the most recent boom time.

Best of all, they were pinker, yellower and bluer too.

We have all seen the color scheme and it typically raises the eyebrows of first time home buyers. In fact, most of the sellers probably intended to remodel those baths too when they bought the house years ago. But these bathrooms were built to last, and they still work so they won’t be getting a HGTV overhaul in our game plan because there won’t be a significant ROI.  So, they stay.

Home buyers will overlook the pinks, blues or yellows if the location is right

But often these homes have oak hardwood floors hiding under wall-to-wall carpet, and there have been a series of good updates (and not so good updates) that buyers will appreciate like central heating or AC systems, roofs and gutters, or window and door replacements. Deep down, most of these homes have good bones and are now in great locations.

So sellers need to start thinking like buyers, and who those buyers of their home might be? Today’s home buyers are unique and been trained by HGTV programs like House Hunters or Property Virgins. Open the Washington Post and see if those shows are on tonight and take a peek… it may be an eye opener listening to the comments of the on-camera home buyers.

The hardest concept for home sellers to grasp: It isn’t your house anymore!

A home seller’s starter checklist:

• Paint walls with a modern color with a “flat enamel” finish… it looks richer and conceals imperfections
• Trim should be ultra white for the best, cleanest contrast
• Paint your ceilings “ceiling white”… it will make those lower ceilings look higher
• Light fixtures will need replacing all over the house… think brighter!
• Some carpets may be in good condition or almost new, so have them professionally cleaned
• Expose those hardwood floors hiding under the living room floor… brighten them with a mop or refinish
• Update old kitchen appliances… the Sunday paper may have a “package” deal
• Set a date with a charity or trash removal company to get rid of some of your old stuff
• Clean everything including your windows… a local maid service may do the trick!
• Remove 50% of the clothes, coats, or supplies in your closets…
• Consider renting a storage unit or contacting a “POD” storage service
• In Northern Virginia, there are professionals to do almost any job… so hire them to do the lifting!

No home is perfect, and your goal as a home seller is to help create a series of “wow moments” when a buyer sees your home online, pulls up at the curb, and then walks in your front door.

Image by DougFrancis via Flickr

I had a home buyer Tweet me and ask if I had any words of wisdom to pass along. The funny thing is that I love giving advice, but 140 characters weren’t going to cut it because what I do really can’t be distilled down to a sound bite. It also raised an issue that many socialists have written dissertations on… the desire for a silver bullet or quick fix.

A picture and a paragraph won’t be enough

Buying real estate in Northern Virginia is going to be a complicated task that will require some planning and very hard work:

• You need to figure out how to pay for your home (and adjust if necessary)
• You need to figure out the best location (and adjust if necessary)
• You need to figure out what style of home you want (and adjust if necessary)
• You need to figure out a reasonable sales price (and adjust if necessary)
• You need to do some comparison shopping (and adjust if necessary)

Plus there really are distinct differences between living in Arlington, McLean, Vienna or Oakton, Virginia.

and now for Doug’s words of home buyer wisdom…

Right now, today, I can share some wisdom that is worth passing down and it will require you to do some serious soul searching. Did you ever read “What Color is My Parachute” when you were searching for a job or life purpose? In that book the author has his readers do some serious thinking to help them discover their individual strengths, and then organize and understand the importance of capitalizing on those strengths.

Where do you see yourself in five or ten years? Today you have opportunities to buy into a neighborhood for the long term, rather than starting with a first-timer home and then moving in five years to your “family” home. Today’s long-term mortgage interest rates are low and should be low for a while, and home prices have been knocked down too. I won’t bother you with equations, but as rates go up then your buying power goes down.

Right now, in Fairfax County, Virginia, I am not seeing builders building too many detached homes under $1,000,000. Understanding the basics of supply vs. demand proves that the supply of detached homes under $650,000 will remain unchanged (actually decrease) over the next ten years. And the population forecast is on the upswing too.

So, my buyer’s agent advice or words of a wisdom… this is the time to buy a home with the long-term in mind.

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Happy New Year!

Like most of you, I recently sat down to review the last year and look ahead to 2010. And like any business person, I took a long hard look at my real estate business, the Northern Virginia real estate market as a whole, my relationships with clients, and where I saw the business in the new year. One of my primary thoughts was that I needed to re-connect with a lot of people who I haven’t spoken with in much too long a time.

Maybe you are one of them? We can meet at Starbucks, call me!

Here are a few of my thoughts on the subject of 2010…

Like 2009, we are going to face a challenging real estate market for Home Sellers and Home Buyers in Northern Virginia

• Buyers will see low interest rates
• Buyers will feel pressure from the home buyer tax-credit deadline of April 30th
• Buyers will see a small inventory of homes for sale
• Buyers will compete with other, very qualified home buyers when submitting real estate contracts
• Buyers will need an agent who prepares them to be a strong and competitive, will show them all homes for sale, and actively pursue a negotiation

• Sellers will see prices remain flat
• Sellers need to know only good properties priced well, and staged well will get an offer
• Sellers will see picky home buyers who may back out of contracts for no apparent reason
• Sellers, those who want to buy another home (move-up or down), will need to understand the April 30th tax deadline
• Sellers will need an agent who understands how today’s buyers look at homes and decide to buy

For more information about the April 30th home buyer tax credit deadline you should read my post on the subject. Timing and strategy in early 2010 are going to be the key to success.

I look forward to re-connecting with you… hey, the first cup is on me!

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As 2009 draws to a close, I have seen mortgage rates stay historically low and some McLean mortgage insiders forecast that they will stay low for the near term. The terrible economy has a lot to do with it… job insecurity, weak demand, and an unwillingness to enter into a 30 year relationship when rumors are easy to believe.

The truth is that if you have the job stability and some cash, then this is an amazing opportunity to buy a home.That is if you can find one that is worth buying since the supply of homes for sale is low… in Northern Virginia that is.

Today’s Home Buyers need a 5 to 10 year time horizon

So what are the rates that I see in Northern Virginia? Let’s take a look without naming names… but with 720+ FICO scores.

10% Down Payment, 30 year fixed, Sales Price up to $722,000 and the recent rate was 4.75% with 1.25 points.

5% Down Payment, 30 year fixed, Sales Price up to $438,900 and the recent rate was 4.875% with no points.

3.5% Down Payment, 30 year fixed FHA, max loan of $729,500 and the recent rate was4.875% with no points.

7-Year Conforming Jumbo ARM and the recent rate was 3.99% with no points.

15-Year Fixed had a recent rate of 4.25.

And loans up to the $1.5 million amount at rates of 5.625%!

If you currently have an adjustable rate loan tied to the LIBOR Rate, then take a look at the current 0.97% rate at BankRate.com .

I list these rates for information only and should be considered examples of mortgage rates available in Northern Virginia in December 2009. Also these are for new purchases and not for refinances which are typically slightly higher. Also, I am a licensed real estate agent and do not provide mortgages and have no affiliated business arrangements with any mortgage providers.

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As I was doing research today previewing some homes for a McLean, Virginia pick of the week, I looked at a remodeled home that reminded of my house in Vienna. I pulled up in front a home on Panarama Court to “preview” the home listed by Paton Real Estate, and noticed a SUV idling in front.

It is a vacant home so I locked the door behind me as I took a quick tour of this McLean renovation.

The house was built in the late 1950’s like mine and they had bumped up and out creating a very attractive floor plan with a very nice gourmet kitchen, family room and upstairs with top notch baths. Overall, it is a very attractive home.

An interesting real estate conversation…

As I opened the front door, there were two men who looked like they were waiting for their agent. I never let people into homes who I don’t know, and one guy told me that he had just signed a contract to buy the house and was with his home inspector waiting for the listing agent to let them in for a look.

I asked about his agent, but no, he had done it himself without an agent. Big smile!

Buyers today really can find tons of information on homes for sale in any market across the U.S. thanks to the Internet. I always add plenty of photos and Google maps to help lookers. Ten years ago I was really the only one with good access to this data, but that gate has been opened and the horses have bolted for greener pastures. Trulia or Redfin are great research tools, and Zestimates can be addictive… some of you know what I am saying.

Well, my brief conversation with the buyer made me realize he was gambling on a $1.3 million dollar house. “So, what do you think of the price?” he asked. Yes, I did give him my business card but really talked to him homeowner to homeowner since my house is in the same generation as his and he really needed more than a home inspection.

Homes that were built in 1958 weren’t built for the weight of a second or third story and it is essential that the steel I-beam carrying the load be strong enough or reinforced. Also, they installed the sewer lateral in 1958 for a one or two bath home, but this home now features 4.5 baths. Orangeburg sewer pipe was used in many homes built in this generation and there is a history of failure, so, this home really needs a camera inspection of that pipe.

My $10,000 advice to that home buyer, “get a look at that sewer lateral!”

One colleague of mine with Nest Realty Group, Jim Duncan, keeps asking the question of the role of agents for consumers in the future. It is a challenge to answer since my job description has changed much over the past ten years. But really, this encounter at 1823 Panarama Court in McLean, Virginia made me realize what a vital role and value an experienced buyer agent like myself adds to the end result of buying the right house.

Here’s a consumer’s little YouTube video on his Orangeburg Pipe and his issues with it collapsing and replacing the entire sewer lateral (credit to cityzenvideo)… now do you think I gave good advice?

Yuck, sewage back ups stink! I just hope that guy found this post…

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Yes, I get tons of free data too but here we go, hyper-local real estate sales numbers:

Home Sales Numbers for 22101 in October 2009:

• Total Units Sold in October 2009, 25 vs. 28 in 2008 (down 10.71%)
• Average Sold Price in October 2009, $1,243,281 vs. $1,072,180  in 2008 (up 15.96%)
• In the $700,000 to $799,999 range, 4 sold with 10 active listings
• In the $800,000 to $899,999 range, 2 sold with 17 active listings
• In the $900,000 to $999,999 range, 0 sold with 20 active listings
• In the $1,000,000 to $2,499,999 range, 10 sold with 93 active listings
• In the $2,500,000 to $4,999,999 range, 1 sold with 13 active listings
• Average days on market in October 2009 was 188 vs. 112 in 2008
• The average sold price in October 2009 was 88.54% of the average list price

There was a big jump in the average sales price in October!

Home Sales Numbers for 22102 in October 2009

• Total Units Sold in October 2009, 34 vs. 23 in 2008 (up 47.83%)
• Average Sold Price in October 2009, $626,885 vs. $791,256 in 2008 (down 20.77%) *
• In the $700,000 to $799,999 range, 1 sold with 5 active listings
• In the $800,000 to $899,999 range, 0 sold with 7 active listings
• In the $900,000 to $999,999 range, 0 sold with 5 active listings
• In the $1,000,000 to $2,499,999 range, 4 sold with 63 active listings
• In the $2,500,000 to $4,999,999 range, 2 sold with 30 active listings
• In the $5,000,000 & Over range, 0 sold with 7 active listings
• Average days on market in October 2009 was 113 vs. 93 in 2008
• The average sold price in October 2009 was 86.19% of the average list price

**This zip code reflects some extremes in pricing as there were 23 sales under $500k and 6 sales over $1.0 million. The McLean home market includes condominiums in all price ranges.

I have set up a quick search for you of homes in 22101

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I have set up a quick home search for you of homes in 22102

See last month’s  numbers here…

I was impressed, but understand that these are custom homes, not just “new” homes.

One of my long-time colleagues who works for the firm that represents the builder was there, and we had an interesting discussion on the $1,000,000 + real estate market in the area. He mentioned that, although that specific Vienna custom home was “sold”, people had been making unsolicited offers on the property… something crazy like a dozen offers. I was surprised since there are so many $1.0 million+ homes for sale in the 22182 and 22180 Vienna zip codes.

When I told him roughly how many were for sale over a million, he doubted me… so I looked it up in the MRIS/MLS database.

Homes for sale in Vienna and McLean, VA over $1.0 million are plentiful…

As of Sunday afternoon October 25th, there are 53 homes for sale over $1.0 million in the Vienna, Virginia 22182 zip code and 24 homes for sale over $1.0 million in 22180. There are 103 detached homes for sale over $1.0 million in McLean 22101!

But there is a little secret here too. There are still more custom homes listed as “land”, or secretly held as “pocket-listings”… when there is a mutual understanding between a land holder and a builder that they plan on selling in the future.

Are you thinking, “I didn’t even know those homes were there?”

I have set up a quick search for you right now at FranklyMLS

If you would like to move to Vienna, McLean or Oakton, Virginia then you really need an experienced agent (an ABR) who can cover the pro’s and cons, get you into these homes to see what and where you are buying, and then put together an aggressive offer. The agent who is listing the property is working for the seller, and that seller is already offering to compensate your agent (buyer’s agent/ABR)… so you will really benefit with someone who is going to find the best options on the market and then help negotiate the best price.

Yes, you need me. I already live here.

Start your search using the MLS Search tool above or on the right in the Real Estate Resources section… either one is good. If you need financing then I also have a couple of excellent local lenders who I can refer you to for a consultation. I look at this as a team effort because when you move in, I don’t want you to say… “I didn’t even know those homes where there.”

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Yes, I get tons of free data too but here we go, hyper-local real estate sales numbers: they aren’t pretty!

Numbers for 22101:

• Total Units Sold in September 2009, 40 vs. 18 in 2008 (up 122.22%)
• Average Sold Price in September 2009, $866,373 vs. $924,386 in 2008 (down 6.28%)
• In the $700,000 to $799,999 range, 4 sold with 16 active listings
• In the $800,000 to $899,999 range, 4 sold with 15 active listings
• In the $900,000 to $999,999 range, 3 sold with 21 active listings
• In the $1,000,000 to $2,499,999 range, 11 sold with 103 active listings
• In the $2,500,000 to $4,999,999 range, 0 sold with 17 active listings
• Average days on market in September 2009 was 103 vs. 81 in 2008
• The average sold price in 2009 was 91.08% of the average list price

Number for 22102

• Total Units Sold in September 2009, 25 vs. 15 in 2008 (up 66.67%)
• Average Sold Price in September 2009, $646,511 vs. $689,193 in 2008 (down 6.19%) *
• In the $700,000 to $799,999 range, 4 sold with 5 active listings
• In the $800,000 to $899,999 range, 2 sold with 4 active listings
• In the $900,000 to $999,999 range, 0 sold with 8 active listings
• In the $1,000,000 to $2,499,999 range, 3 sold with 71 active listings
• In the $2,500,000 to $4,999,999 range, 1 sold with 28 active listings
• In the $5,000,000 & Over range, 0 sold with 7 active listings
• Average days on market in September 2009 was 82 vs. 78 in 2008
• The average sold price in 2009 was 96.28% of the average list price

**This zip code reflects some extremes in pricing as there were 15 sales under $500k and 4 sales over $1. million. The McLean home market includes condominiums in all price ranges.

I have set up a quick search for you of homes in 22101

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I have set up a quick home search for you of homes in 22102

In the past decade Vienna builders have actively acquired homes built in the 1950’s to tear down, and I have been the agent involved in some of these transactions. These 1,450 square foot homes typically have three small bedrooms and one bath, and ideally sit on quarter to third-acre lots. Many of them have basements, but with seven foot ceilings and no natural light, they are unappealing to many of today’s home buyers. In essence, these older homes are functionally obsolete.

Originally, many of the home owners in Vienna were Federal employees living on government salaries. Today, the local economy is much more diversified and Fairfax County enjoys one of the highest average income levels in the country. And the land has become under utilized.

As a result, the property lots have become far more valuable than the structures on them and builders have bought these homes to tear down and build new homes. The Town of Vienna has a zoning restriction of 25% maximum lot coverage, and this restriction has kept new homes to a reasonable size, preserved more of the mature tree canopy, and helped fuel demand for more new homes in established neighborhoods.

And the builders have continued to push into new projects although most have scaled back on speculative building. Buyers are now entering contracts before construction begins which also allows them the benefit of further customizing the home to suit their needs. Of course, like in all real estate sales, location remains the key and prices for these new homes vary considerably. For example, when you see pricing it is usually for two finished levels only unless the home is already finished (a spec home).

A project across the street… from me.

As I am sitting here in my home office, I am looking out at one of these tear down projects which is just getting underway across the street from my home on MacArthur Avenue. The past owners kept to themselves and I really only gave the neighborly wave as they pulled out of their driveway. Why they sold out is unknown to me, but the future of the property seemed the perfect theme for an ongoing blog.

The current home was built in the late 1950’s, is built on a hillside and features a snappy garage. The lot is 16,982 square feet or 0.389 of an acre perfect for a tear down), and backs up to mature oak trees on the rectangular lot. It is a narrow, but deep lot so any home is going to be narrow and deep too.

This week has been the start of the project with the plumber digging up the yard to cut the water and sewer lines and capped them off. Both of these lines are likely original, 1957, and replacing them now makes sense even though it is a requirement. The new sewer line should last 50 years too, and the new water service line will be a modern one-inch pipe.

Many readers may remember when I remodeled my house. It too was a1957 model but had a different, deeper layout, walk-out basement, and room to expand. We weren’t the first home on the block to remodel but have certainly witnessed a neighborhood in transition. Location was very important for a number of reasons, but the actual location or position of the house was superior because the sun filters through the main level from sunrise to sunset. It is these little details that many people don’t see when they decide to buy any home, let along a custom new home on an infill lot in Vienna, McLean or Arlington.

When they start the tear down of this house then we will all follow along.